Japan has to take these three steps to complete the decarbonization goal of photovoltaic business

In October this year, Japan passed the "6th Energy Basic Plan." This plan demonstrates Japan's carbon neutral vision in 2050 and the direction of countermeasures related to new global climate changes in 2030. In Japan's previous energy policy, renewable energy was "mixed" with traditional energy. This time, Japan finally proposed a set of new energy policies comparable to other developed countries.

The new plan means new changes and new challenges. In previous articles, we have analyzed Japan’s new "Basic Energy Plan" many times. This time we take this as the premise, focus our attention on solar power generation, and analyze the necessary roads for solar power generation in Japan to complete the decarbonization goal.

Japan wants to clarify the single-year quantitative introduction target of solar power generation

When Japan announced the sixth "Energy Basic Plan", it also launched the "2030 Energy Supply and Demand Forecast." "Forecast" pointed out that in order to achieve the goal of introducing renewable energy, Japan must import at least 120GW of solar power generation.

Calculate the time for completion of the target based on this target: 2022 will be the year that Japan will carry out various preparation policies. Counting from 2023 to the end of 2030, Japan will need to add at least 60GW of solar power generation equipment in 8 years to achieve the set goal. Based on simple calculations, an average of 7.5GW is imported every year.

However, another Japanese government’s discussion of the "Energy Basic Plan" shows that due to various actual conditions, Japan’s annual solar energy import volume before 2030 can only reach 6GW at most.

If based on this situation, re-examine the amount of introduction mentioned in the target, then from 2025 to 2030, the minimum limit of the Japanese solar power market will be maintained at 8GW per year. If the higher goal of carbon neutrality is to be considered, then the amount of solar power imported in Japan is bound to be higher than 8GW.

In recent years, the Japanese government has been suppressing the number of business plan certifications in the country's FIT system. If this situation continues, it is expected that the Japanese solar power market will shrink to below 3 to 4 GW per year in the future. Therefore, if Japan is to complete its decarbonization goal, the first step for Japan's solar power generation is to restore the domestic solar power generation market to more than twice its current size as soon as possible. This point will also be a prerequisite for Japan to formulate policies in the future. This premise requires a consensus between policy makers and solar power generation companies, and new measures should be explored based on this premise as soon as possible.

Ensuring the necessary national investment in solar energy

The introduction of solar power generation belongs to infrastructure investment. Therefore, to ensure the introduction of funds for solar power generation, we must have a long-term vision. In addition, it is far from enough to rely on some investors to ensure sufficient funds for the introduction of solar power generation. Japan must raise funds nationwide.

After the Japanese government put forward the goal of "achieving carbon neutrality by 2050," various local governments in Japan have successively introduced their own "zero carbon goals." With this as the goal, Japan will not only use large-scale installations such as offshore wind power in the process of introducing a large amount of renewable energy in the future, and introduce renewable energy power generation methods only in areas with high power generation potential. , But to promote the popularization of renewable energy power generation throughout Japan. Solar panels can be installed in various forms, so for cities lacking natural resources, solar power generation is almost the only renewable energy power generation method that local governments can choose.

At present, solar power generation in residential buildings is becoming popular in Japan, and this trend is also making up for the above-mentioned gap in Japan's renewable energy power generation. But at the same time, who is responsible for the construction, investment, and operation of solar power plants in various parts of Japan, the subject of these actions also needs to be clarified.

Take an autonomous body with a population of about 30,000 as an example. Domestic electricity consumption for households and businesses requires approximately 120 MWh a year. This is equivalent to the amount of electricity that a 115MW capacity solar power plant can supply. The amount of power generation of this scale requires nearly 20 to 23 billion yen (approximately 1.13 billion to 1.3 billion yuan) just for the investment in power generation equipment. The investment of this scale has exceeded the budget of a self-government of this scale in one year. Not to mention that the investment in the supply of renewable energy power to industry is even greater.

Therefore, Japan must formulate a system that can be applied to the whole country and can obtain financing and capital guarantee for renewable energy power generation. However, the prerequisite for designating this system is to clarify the amount of investment necessary for each region in Japan.

Use solar power plant materials as strategic resources,Helping renewable energy companies grow

After the new crown epidemic began to break out worldwide, the price of solar power generation continued to rise. At present, China, the largest producer of solar panels, has stagnated in its domestic manufacturing and logistics. In addition, the chaos of international logistics has also led to an increase in container prices. On the other hand, the “green recovery” policies of various countries have led to continuous expansion of renewable energy investment worldwide, which has created a contradiction between supply and demand between the decline in the production capacity of China's solar power-related equipment in the past two years.

Compared with October 2021 and the end of 2019, the price of solar panels has increased by 1.5 to 2 times. If the current situation of rising equipment costs cannot be improved, the long-term plan to gradually reduce the cost of introducing solar power generation equipment based on FIT and FIP will not be realized. Therefore, necessary measures must be taken to address the problem of rising logistics prices due to the surge in import volume. However, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy have not taken necessary measures to address the issue of rising logistics prices.

If Japan feels that it is necessary to speed up the country's import of renewable resources in 2030, one of the measures that must be taken is to ensure the supply of solar power-related equipment in Japan.

Japanese photovoltaic equipment manufacturers have experienced a sharp decline in recent years. Japan can use this formal expansion of the popularization of solar power as an opportunity to provide assistance to the surviving photovoltaic equipment manufacturers in Japan, instead of sitting by and watching them get into business difficulties.

As mentioned above, if solar power generation of 60GW or more is to be introduced by 2030, the investment is expected to be at least 12 trillion yen (about 669.5 billion yuan). Japan’s singleyear 8GW market has a scale of at least 16,600 billion yen (approximately 89.2 billion yuan), half of which is the cost of materials, and Japan does not want to sit back and watch these profits flow abroad.

Therefore, although Japan has begun to cultivate its own offshore wind power generation and other industries, Japan must clearly support its support policy for all renewable energy power-related companies, including solar power generation

If the Japanese government continues to give all the promotion of the FIT system to the relevant parties in the private sector, and only tries to solve the problem through "intensification of business regulations" when problems arise, then the popularity of solar energy in Japan may only experience bubble growth and cannot be stabilized. developing. In this case, even if more renewable energy subsidies are invested, the results will not be seen.

This article analyzes the current situation and prospects of solar power generation in Japan from the perspectives of market scale, investment funds, and support system. If Japan starts to solve these three problems, the market environment and popularization speed of solar energy in Japan will be greatly improved. developing.